Project Eleven published a new report on Wednesday proposing that the inflection point of quantum computers breaking modern encryption, often referred to as "Q-Day," could come as early as 2030.
The startup, focused on post-quantum security, said a breakthrough is "more likely than not" by 2033, with estimates ranging a few years in either direction.
Project Eleven predicts that quantum advancements will happen in sudden leaps rather than a slow and linear progression.
It says progress in hardware and algorithms is compounding and could lead to a major jump in capabilities that it describes as "nothing, and then all at once."
Recent demonstrations partially support that theory. Last month, a researcher derived a 15-bit elliptic curve key using quantum hardware.
While notable, it is still a ways off from the 256-bit encryption used in cryptocurrencies like Bitcoin.
About 6.9 million bitcoins, now worth more than $560 billion, could be exposed to quantum risk under certain conditions, Project Eleven estimates.
Even if Q-Day is years away, as the researchers predict, mass migration to quantum-resistant wallets and addresses could take just as long.
The report points to a theory known as Mosca's inequality, which essentially says that if a system takes longer to upgrade than the threat takes to arrive, it is already behind.
This school of thought is already driving early responses of action across the crypto industry.
One recent proposal from Paradigm researcher Dan Robinson would let bitcoin holders prove ownership of wallets today via timestamps, which could be used to reclaim funds on some later quantum-safe version of Bitcoin without revealing onchain activity.
Other approaches, like BIP-361 from Jameson Lopp and others, would involve a multi-year migration window for users to move funds to quantum-resistant addresses.
And it is not just the crypto sector that is vulnerable. Other tech giants like Google are moving up their timelines, targeting a 2029 migration to quantum-resistant cryptography.
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