Coinbase Chief Legal Officer Paul Grewal said he is "very confident" the Clarity Act will pass before summer ends, throwing his weight behind the Tillis-Alsobrooks stablecoin rewards compromise and delivering a pointed message to the banking industry: take the deal.

In an interview with The Block's Gareth Jenkinson at Consensus 2026, Grewal endorsed the compromise pitched by Senators Thom Tillis and Angela Alsobrooks. He described the updated bill as a workable middle ground that preserves the feature most critical to Coinbase's (COIN) stablecoin business and the large financial market.

Activity-based rewards — yields tied to actual platform usage — survive under the deal. Idle yield, the balance-based reward model banks had flagged as a deposit-flight risk, is restricted. The Block reported earlier this month that the compromise cleared the path to a long-stalled Senate markup.

"I very much encourage the banking trade to not snatch defeat from the jaws of victory," Grewal said. "Accept yes for the answer and move on."

Coinbase CEO Brian Armstrong and the crypto exchange had publicly opposed earlier versions of the bill in January, arguing the banking lobby had co-opted it. Armstrong’s tune eventually shifted after a series of negotiations and regulatory meetings. By early April, he publicly supported an updated bill, saying "it's time to pass the Clarity Act."

Grewal said Armstrong had been consistent from the start: protecting stablecoin rewards was a red line. The Tillis-Alsobrooks compromise, in his view, holds that line. The banks' central objection — that paying rewards on stablecoin balances creates a deposit-flight risk — drew a blunt response.

"When pushed, the banks in meeting after meeting and conversation after conversation — many of which I participated in personally — they produced nothing of substance to substantiate this argument," Grewal said. "There's zero evidence of this."

The stakes of rejection are quite specific.

Grewal noted that under the GENIUS Act, the federal stablecoin framework, any reward can be offered by any non-issuer for any purpose. He stopped short of saying the banks would hate that outcome. The compromise, he argued, is the better deal for everyone, including the industry lobbying hardest against it.

Grewal's confidence in summer passage was notably unhedged. "I'm very confident we're going to see the Clarity Act pass this summer at the latest," he said.

Prediction markets: proof in the pudding

On prediction markets, Grewal said the federal-state jurisdiction fight may require the Supreme Court to issue a final ruling.

Congress granted the CFTC exclusive authority over event contracts, a mandate Grewal said certain state governments have misread in claiming their traditional gaming authority supersedes it. A16z backed the CFTC's position last month, arguing that state-by-state rules create a barrier to equal access. However, lawsuits are now stacking up across state and federal courts.

Importantly, Grewal pointed to the 2024 U.S. presidential election as the moment prediction markets earned their credibility. Polls consistently predicted a Kamala Harris victory; prediction markets had Donald Trump as the likely winner.

"The proof was in that pudding," he said.

The structural case goes beyond accuracy, according to Coinbase's CLO. Grewal argued that CFTC-regulated event contracts eliminate the house edge embedded in traditional sports books, giving prediction markets a durable advantage over conventional gambling as the user base scales.

Regulatory landscape

Asked about concerns over the Trump administration's involvement in crypto, Grewal declined to engage the political framing, instead arguing that cryptocurrency deserves "a fair chance to compete on the global stage — not an advantaged chance, not a disadvantaged chance."

He said policymakers focused on keeping America competitive against China will ultimately reach the right answers on crypto regulation.

SEC Chair Paul Atkins and CFTC Chair Mike Selig are not only fluent in what crypto can do but "champions themselves of using it to modernize an American financial system that has long lagged behind its full potential," Grewal added.