Bitcoin Price Prediction: BTC Extends Fragile Phase as Technical Pressure, Flows, and Macro Signals Converge

Bitcoin continues to trade under pressure as technical weakness, futures activity, and shifting market sentiment shape its short-term outlook. On the four-hour chart, BTC holds below key resistance zones while investors weigh rising derivatives participation against renewed crash warnings. Consequently, the market remains cautious as traders assess whether support can hold or further downside emerges.

Bitcoin trades near $86,800, reflecting a fragile structure on the four-hour timeframe. The price remains below the 50, 100, and 200 exponential moving averages. Hence, short-term momentum continues to favor sellers. The descending price structure shows lower highs, reinforcing the bearish to neutral bias.

Significantly, the 200 EMA near $92,300 continues to cap recovery attempts. Buyers have struggled to reclaim the $89,500 to $90,000 zone, which previously acted as support. This failure highlights weak follow-through from bulls during recent bounce attempts. Volatility has also tightened, suggesting a stronger directional move may follow.

Immediate resistance stands between $87,900 and $89,100, aligned with short-term moving averages. Above that, the $92,300 to $94,700 range remains the key level required for a broader trend shift. On the downside, support near $86,000 remains critical. A break could expose $83,800 and possibly $80,500.

Bitcoin’s futures market activity has expanded steadily throughout 2025. Open interest has risen sharply alongside price movements, peaking during mid-year rallies. As of December 17, open interest stands near $58.84 billion while BTC trades around $87,783.

Additionally, this growth suggests stronger trader engagement and speculative positioning. Historically, rising open interest during consolidations can increase volatility risk. Hence, traders now monitor whether leverage supports continuation or accelerates liquidations during price swings.

Spot inflow and outflow data also reflects shifting sentiment. Positive netflows often align with price advances, while recent negative flows have coincided with pullbacks. Large mid-December outflows appeared alongside a dip toward $86,675, indicating cautious positioning or profit-taking.

Bitcoin critic Peter Schiff has renewed concerns over deeper downside risks. He points to record highs in gold and silver as evidence of capital rotation into traditional safe havens. Moreover, Schiff argues that confidence in Bitcoin’s hedge narrative has weakened.

According to his view, investors expecting protection during economic stress may face disappointment. Consequently, heightened risk aversion could pressure Bitcoin rather than support it. While the market does not universally share this stance, his warnings add to near-term uncertainty.

Key levels remain clearly defined for Bitcoin as price action compresses on the lower timeframes.

Upside levels stand at $87,900 and $89,100 as immediate hurdles, followed by the $90,000 psychological level. A sustained breakout above $90,000 could open the door toward $92,300, where the 200 EMA caps upside momentum. A decisive move beyond $94,700 would shift the medium-term bias bullish.

On the downside, $86,000 remains the first line of defense, aligned with a key Fibonacci level. A breakdown below this zone risks a slide toward $83,800–$84,000, with $80,500 acting as a deeper macro support and liquidity target. The technical structure shows Bitcoin trading inside a descending trend, reflecting lower highs and persistent selling pressure.

Bitcoin’s near-term outlook hinges on whether buyers can reclaim the $89,500–$90,000 range with conviction. Continued compression suggests volatility expansion ahead.

If bullish momentum builds alongside improving inflows, BTC could retest $92,300 and $94,700. However, failure to hold $86,000 may accelerate downside risk toward $83,800 and potentially $80,500. For now, Bitcoin remains at a pivotal inflection zone, where confirmation from price and volume will shape the next major move.