Bitcoin (BTC) price showed signs of recovery on November 12, 2025, as buying momentum returned above the $99,000 region. After finding strong support near $98,953, the asset pushed higher toward $105,399, testing a key Fibonacci retracement level. The rebound comes amid mixed signals from both technical indicators and market sentiment, leaving traders cautious about the next directional move.
The Bitcoin chart reveals a tightening range between $104,000 and $109,000. This compression reflects a market pause after weeks of high volatility. The 23.6% Fibonacci level at $105,399 is acting as immediate resistance. A decisive move above this threshold could expose the next target at $109,386, aligning with the 38.2% retracement zone.
Significantly, this area coincides with the 200-day exponential moving average (EMA) and the upper Bollinger Band near $108,958. A sustained close above these metrics would confirm renewed bullish momentum.
Furthermore, a crossover between the 20- and 50-day EMAs may strengthen the short-term upside structure. However, any rejection at these levels could send BTC back toward $104,000 or $100,288, maintaining a consolidation pattern.
Futures data continues to show a steady buildup in leveraged positions. Bitcoin open interest reached $68.96 billion on November 11, highlighting persistent confidence among derivatives traders.
The metric has remained elevated throughout the year despite brief liquidations during corrections. This trend indicates that traders expect volatility but are not exiting the market.
Moreover, high open interest levels often signal institutional involvement, suggesting capital inflows remain active in futures markets. Hence, as long as leverage remains stable without sharp liquidations, the broader bullish structure could hold.
Despite optimism in derivatives markets, spot data paints a more cautious picture. Bitcoin spot products recorded an $82.29 million net outflow on November 11. This marks the continuation of red bars seen since late October, implying consistent selling pressure across exchanges.
Besides, declining inflows suggest reduced accumulation from large investors. Some traders appear to be taking profits or waiting for clearer macroeconomic signals before re-entering positions. Consequently, market liquidity remains tight, and BTC price action is likely to remain range-bound until a decisive breakout occurs.
Key levels remain well-defined heading into mid-November. Upside targets include $105,399 and $109,386, corresponding to the 23.6% and 38.2% Fibonacci retracement levels. A confirmed breakout above this range could pave the way toward $112,609 and $115,832, aligning with the 0.5 and 0.618 Fibonacci zones.
On the downside, immediate support lies at $104,000, followed by $103,000 and $100,288. The crucial base remains at $98,953, which recently acted as a rebound point for buyers.
The 20, 50, 100, and 200 EMAs are tightly compressed between $103,937 and $108,958, reflecting a neutral-to-slightly bullish market bias. If the 20 EMA crosses above the 50 EMA, Bitcoin could confirm a short-term bullish shift. Resistance between $106,500 and $109,000 forms a significant ceiling that must break to sustain further gains.
Bitcoin’s November trend hinges on whether bulls can maintain momentum above $104,000 and challenge the upper resistance near $110,000. Technical compression suggests an imminent volatility breakout, with futures open interest showing growing confidence among leveraged traders. However, persistent spot outflows signal cautious sentiment among investors.
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