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August 4 US Q2 Earnings Roundup
August 4 US Q2 Earnings Roundup

August 4 US Q2 Earnings Roundup

2026-08-0515m28.715K深度研究
Author: LBank Research      Analyst: Steven.fu
 
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Disclaimer: This report is based on publicly available information and analysis and is intended solely for informational and research discussion purposes. It does not constitute investment advice, a securities recommendation, a trading instruction, or any guarantee of returns. Company operations, valuations, market prices, and consensus expectations discussed herein may change over time. Readers should independently verify the data and make their own decisions.
 
This issue reviews eight technology companies that released calendar or fiscal Q2 results after the US market closed on August 4: SpaceX (SPCX), AMD (AMD), Arista Networks (ANET), Astera Labs (ALAB), Lattice Semiconductor (LSCC), Toast (TOST), Pinterest (PINS), and Coupang (CPNG).

1. Key Conclusions: Operating Results Broadly Beat Prior Guidance, but Cash Returns Still Determine the Ratings

Overall view: Last night's technology earnings confirmed that AI capital spending continues to accelerate across compute, server CPUs, Ethernet switching, rack-scale interconnects, and programmable control chips, while platform software and digital advertising also remain in growth mode. Yet valuation tolerance did not improve in step with the strong results. On stock risk-reward, Pinterest is positive, Toast is neutral-positive, AMD, Lattice, and Coupang are neutral-negative, and SpaceX, Arista, and Astera Labs are negative. The primary variable is no longer whether next-quarter revenue can continue to grow, but whether that growth can convert into free cash flow per share without relying on higher capital spending, stock-based compensation, or acquisition adjustments.
 
 
  1. SpaceX's first earnings report as a public company validated both the upside optionality and the core warning in the prior report. Q2 revenue grew 92% to $7.814B, Starlink subscribers doubled to 12.0M, and AI revenue increased 247% to $2.561B while the segment generated positive adjusted EBITDA of $1.146B for the first time. However, quarterly capital expenditures reached $18.369B, equal to 235% of revenue, and simplified first-half FCF was negative $25.010B. The business ceiling has moved higher, but the approximately $1.52T implied after-hours market capitalization still requires returns on capital to improve far faster than current cash flow; the rating is negative.
  2. AMD, Arista, Astera, and Lattice all reported revenue above prior-quarter guidance or the high end of guidance, providing hard evidence of strong AI hardware demand. AMD Data Center revenue grew 107%; Arista delivered its first $3B quarter; Astera's Q3 revenue guidance midpoint implies another 40% sequential increase; and Lattice Q2 revenue grew 62%. The problem is valuation. Using final after-hours prices, the four companies traded at approximately 71.2x simply annualized Q2 non-GAAP EPS, 65.9x updated TTM GAAP earnings, 75.5x simply annualized Q3 non-GAAP EPS, and 58.8x simply annualized Q3 non-GAAP EPS, respectively. The after-hours declines in three of the four names other than Arista released some valuation pressure, but the high multiples still capitalize future growth well in advance.
  3. The operating thesis in the Arista report from Issue No. 31 was validated in both directions: the operating thresholds were exceeded by a wide margin, while the valuation warning remains intact. The prior report required Q2 revenue to come in meaningfully above $2.8B without gross margin falling below 61%. Actual revenue was $3.036B, GAAP gross margin was 62.9%, and Q3 revenue guidance pointed to $3.3B. At the same time, an 11.10% after-hours gain lifted the implied market capitalization to approximately $266.5B, or about 65.9x updated TTM GAAP earnings with a 1.9% FCF yield. The company continues to win, but the stock still requires years of near-flawless execution. The negative risk-reward rating is maintained.
  4. Pinterest is one of the few companies in this group offering growth, repurchases, and a visible cash yield at the same time. Revenue grew 18% to $1.180B, MAUs increased 11% to 640M, and FCF rose 37% to $270M. The company has repurchased more than $2B of shares year to date at an average price of $18.17, below the final after-hours price of $23.38. Even with Q3 revenue-growth guidance slowing to 13%-15%, the approximately 8.2% mechanically annualized Q2 FCF yield provides more visible cash support. The rating is positive.
  5. Toast and Coupang show why revenue growth cannot substitute for cash quality. Toast ARR grew 25% and Locations increased 22%, while full-year recurring gross-profit and adjusted EBITDA guidance were raised. Yet Q2 FCF declined from $208M to $130M. Coupang's constant-currency revenue grew 10% and adjusted EBITDA recovered from Q1, but TTM FCF fell to $105M, while Korean administrative fines widened the GAAP operating loss to $556M. Toast's growth and guidance raise support a neutral-positive rating; Coupang's weak cash flow and regulatory burden support only a neutral-negative rating.
  6. Regular-session gains had been mislabeled as after-hours reactions; the correct post-earnings tape was seven declines and one gain. From the prior close to the August 4 regular close, SPCX, AMD, ANET, ALAB, LSCC, TOST, PINS, and CPNG rose 9.43%, 7.00%, 3.04%, 12.65%, 8.51%, 3.11%, 5.88%, and 2.19%, respectively. Using the final available after-hours prices at approximately 19:58-20:00 ET versus each regular close, their post-earnings reactions were -7.47%, -8.82%, +11.10%, -1.01%, -4.50%, -1.77%, -8.60%, and -7.26%. SPCX's after-hours decline can reasonably be described as approximately 8%-9% at different snapshots; this report uses the reproducible final price of $115.97 at 19:59:59 ET, equal to -7.47%.
     

2. Company-by-Company Review: Revenue Trajectories Generally Improved, but the Cost of Delivery Determines the Rating

SpaceX: Starlink and AI Accelerate Together, While a 235% Capital-Expenditure Ratio Consumes IPO Funding

Results and review of the prior thesis. SpaceX Q2 revenue was $7.814B, up 92% year over year and 66% sequentially. Connectivity revenue reached $4.291B, up 66%, while segment operating income increased 79% to $1.656B. Starlink subscribers doubled from 6.0M to 12.0M. ARPU declined from $85 a year earlier to $66 but was unchanged from Q1. Issue No. 10 argued that Connectivity would continue to serve as the cash-profit pool if Starlink subscriber growth could offset ARPU pressure. Subscriber count doubled this quarter and Enterprise & Government revenue grew 108%, validating that view.
 
The change in AI was even larger. Revenue reached $2.561B, up 247% year over year and 213% sequentially, including $2.194B from AI solutions and infrastructure. The company signed $14.1B of Cloud Services Agreements, which generated $1.6B of incremental infrastructure revenue during the quarter. AI segment adjusted EBITDA swung from negative $276M a year earlier to positive $1.146B, although the GAAP operating loss remained $1.257B. Compute monetization has therefore entered revenue and non-GAAP profit in a material way, while depreciation, R&D, and stock-based compensation continue to leave accounting returns far from mature.
 
Cash, capital allocation, and rating. Quarterly capital expenditures for Space, Connectivity, and AI were $1.174B, $1.367B, and $15.828B, respectively, for a total of $18.369B, or 235% of revenue. First-half operating cash flow of $3.466B less capital expenditures of $28.476B produced simplified FCF of negative $25.010B. IPO and bond proceeds lifted cash and marketable securities to approximately $100B, while debt and finance leases totaled about $39.364B. The company also agreed to acquire Cursor for $60B, so the balance sheet is simultaneously funding AI compute and M&A.
 
The regular-session close was $125.33, up 9.43% on the day; the final after-hours price was $115.97, down 7.47% from the close. Scaling Nasdaq's regular-close market capitalization by the after-hours-to-close price ratio produces an implied after-hours market capitalization of approximately $1.518T. Subtracting cash and marketable securities and adding debt yields a simplified enterprise value of approximately $1.458T, equal to roughly 46.6x simply annualized Q2 revenue and 103.0x simply annualized Q2 adjusted EBITDA. The earlier conclusion at $160.95 that the valuation was buying a decade of uninterrupted execution has not been overturned; revenue growth and the share-price decline have merely reduced the multiples. Research rating: Negative. Risk-reward can improve only if AI capital expenditures as a share of revenue fall below 150% over the next two quarters, group quarterly FCF turns positive, and Starlink ARPU remains at least $65.

AMD: Data Center Revenue Doubles, but 71x Annualized Earnings Already Prices In Helios Success

Results. AMD Q2 revenue reached $11.536B, up 50% year over year and 13% sequentially. It was 3.0% above the $11.2B midpoint of Q1 guidance and slightly above the $11.5B high end. Data Center revenue was $6.7B, up 107%, and represented approximately 58% of group revenue. Client revenue increased 23% to $3.1B, Embedded grew 19% to $977M, and Gaming declined 31% to $779M as semi-custom revenue fell. The growth transmission is clear: broader EPYC and Instinct deployments drove Data Center revenue to more than double, lifted non-GAAP operating margin to 27%, and generated $1.558B of Q2 FCF.
 
The profit improvement has comparability limits. Q2 GAAP gross margin was 54% and non-GAAP gross margin was 56%. The prior-year quarter included $800M of MI308 export-control inventory and related charges, so the 14- and 13-percentage-point year-over-year improvements cannot be treated entirely as sustainable operating leverage. Sequential performance is more informative: revenue rose 13%, non-GAAP operating income increased 22% to $3.094B, and operating margin expanded by two percentage points. Q3 guidance calls for revenue of $13.0B plus or minus $300M, implying another roughly 13% sequential increase at the midpoint, with non-GAAP gross margin holding near 56%. Helios, MI400, EPYC, and deployments with customers including Anthropic and Microsoft continue to support the trajectory.
 
Cash and rating. Q2 operating cash flow was $2.366B, capital expenditures were $808M, and company-defined FCF was $1.558B. First-half FCF was $4.124B, up 116%. The regular close was $518.58, up 7.00% on the day, while the final after-hours price was $472.85, down 8.82% from the close. That price equaled approximately 71.2x simply annualized Q2 non-GAAP EPS of $1.66, while the mechanically annualized yield on first-half FCF was only about 1.1%. Operating fundamentals are very strong, but Gaming weakness, export restrictions, advanced-packaging constraints, and HBM supply remain limitations. The elevated valuation already treats second-half Data Center acceleration as the base case. Research rating: Neutral-negative. If Q3 revenue falls below $12.7B or gross margin drops below 55%, multiple compression could outpace the change in earnings. Rating pressure would ease materially only if revenue exceeds $13.3B and quarterly FCF surpasses $2.5B.

Arista Networks: The Prior Report's Operating Reversal Conditions Were Met, but the Valuation Conclusion Remains Negative

Results and prior view. Arista Q2 revenue reached $3.036B, up 37.7% year over year and 12.1% sequentially, 8.4% above the $2.8B company guidance recorded in Issue No. 31. Non-GAAP EPS was $1.02, 15.9% above the prior guidance of approximately $0.88. Product revenue increased 38.8% to $2.605B and service revenue rose 31.3% to $431M. GAAP gross margin declined from 65.2% to 62.9% but remained above the prior report's 61% risk threshold. GAAP operating margin increased from 44.7% to 45.4%, showing that discounts to large AI customers have not yet undermined expense leverage.
 
Q3 guidance calls for revenue of approximately $3.3B, non-GAAP operating margin of 48%-49%, and EPS of $1.06-$1.08. The revenue midpoint implies another 8.7% sequential increase. The product cadence in 1.6Tbps Etherlink, liquid-cooled platforms, and open Ethernet demonstrates that Arista remains a net beneficiary of AI scale-out and scale-across networking. The prior report required revenue to come in meaningfully above $2.8B, AI shipments to accelerate, and gross margin to hold; this quarter met those conditions, further validating the strongly positive operating view.
 
Cash, valuation, and rating. First-half operating cash flow was $2.777B and capital expenditures were $84M, producing simplified FCF of approximately $2.692B. Rolling the prior report's TTM data forward with Q2 gives TTM GAAP net income of approximately $4.045B and FCF of about $5.155B. The regular close was $190.51, up 3.04% on the day, and the final after-hours price was $211.66, up 11.10% from the close. The approximately $266.5B implied after-hours market capitalization represented 65.9x GAAP earnings and a 1.9% FCF yield. Operating delivery was not completely exhausted by the one-day rally, but the high multiple still leaves too little margin of safety. Research rating: Negative. The negative rating would have a basis to improve only if revenue continues to beat guidance by more than 5% for the next two quarters, GAAP gross margin remains above 62%, and the TTM FCF yield rises to 3%.

Astera Labs: Scorpio Becomes the Largest Product Line Early, but 28x Annualized Sales Requires a Seamless Ramp

Results. Astera Q2 revenue was $392.4M, up 104% year over year and 27% sequentially, 9.0% above the $355M-$365M midpoint of prior guidance. GAAP and non-GAAP EPS were $0.83 and $0.80, respectively, also meaningfully above the original $0.44-$0.46 and $0.68-$0.70 ranges. GAAP gross margin was 73.3%, GAAP operating margin was 22.7%, and non-GAAP operating margin was 39.1%. Aries retimers returned to record revenue, while Taurus, Leo, and Scorpio together are expanding the company from a single-product PCIe/CXL connectivity-chip supplier into an AI rack-scale fabric platform.
 
Q3 revenue guidance is $540M-$560M, with the midpoint implying 40.2% sequential growth. The Scorpio X-Series 320-lane fabric switch is expected to become the company's largest product family one quarter earlier than previously planned. The investment implication is direct: the switch ramp should materially increase content per rack while also extending competition from the high-margin retimer market into a denser field that includes Broadcom, NVIDIA, custom ASICs, and open-interconnect ecosystems. Q3 gross-margin guidance of approximately 72% is about 1.3 percentage points below Q2, already reflecting the mix shift.
 
Cash and rating. First-half operating cash flow was $162M and capital expenditures were $28M, leaving simplified FCF of approximately $134M. GAAP net income exceeded operating income partly because of tax effects, so annualizing the $0.83 EPS figure in full would be inappropriate. The regular close was $361.67, up 12.65% on the day, and the final after-hours price was $358.00, down 1.01% from the close. The implied after-hours market capitalization was approximately $61.4B, equal to about 27.9x simply annualized Q3 revenue at the midpoint and 75.5x simply annualized Q3 non-GAAP EPS at the midpoint. The mechanically annualized yield on first-half FCF remained only approximately 0.4%. Research rating: Negative. If the Scorpio ramp leaves Q3 revenue below $540M, gross margin falls below 71%, or customer concentration rises further, valuation compression could become visible very quickly.

Lattice Semiconductor: FPGA Recovery and the AMI Acquisition Advance Together, but the Stock Is Even More Expensive Than the Cash Flow Is Strong

Results. Lattice fiscal Q2 revenue reached a record $201.1M, up 62.2% year over year and 17.7% sequentially. GAAP gross margin was 70.3%, while non-GAAP EPS was $0.53, up more than 120%. Operating cash flow was $88.3M and company-defined FCF was $81.3M, for an FCF margin of 40.4%. Management said revenue and non-GAAP EPS both exceeded the high end of prior guidance, showing that Compute & Communications growth and the Industrial & Embedded recovery have progressed from design wins into shipments.
 
Q3 FPGA revenue guidance is $210M-$230M, with the midpoint implying 65% year-over-year growth. Including approximately two months of AMI revenue, group revenue guidance is $245M-$265M, with the midpoint reaching a $1B annualized run rate. AMI extends Lattice into secure management and control platforms, increasing content per server across BMC, root-of-trust, and companion-control chips. Acquisition revenue, however, is not the same as organic FPGA growth. Q3 non-GAAP gross-margin guidance of 69.5% plus or minus one percentage point is also below Q2's 71.7%, as integration and product mix dilute some near-term margin.
 
Rating. The regular close was $138.00, up 8.51% on the day, and the final after-hours price was $131.79, down 4.50% from the close. The latter was approximately 58.8x simply annualized Q3 non-GAAP EPS at the $0.56 midpoint, while the mechanically annualized Q2 FCF yield was about 1.8%. The thesis that Lattice can capture incremental AI-server content through high-margin, small, low-power FPGAs and control platforms remains valid. AMI integration, the inventory cycle, and acquisition accounting still require cash validation. Research rating: Neutral-negative. Valuation pressure can ease if Q3 FPGA revenue exceeds $230M, non-GAAP gross margin remains at least 70%, and FCF stays above $80M. If growth comes primarily from consolidating AMI, the current multiple lacks organic support.

Toast: Locations and ARR Continue to Grow at Double-Digit Rates, and the Guidance Raise Matters More Than One Quarter of Cash Flow

Results. Toast Q2 revenue was $1.908B, up 23%. ARR increased 25% to $2.4B, Total Locations rose 22% to approximately 180,000 with 9,500 net additions, and GPV grew 22% to $60.7B. GAAP gross profit from subscription and financial-technology solutions increased 31% to $585M. Non-GAAP recurring gross profit reached $595M, 4.4% above the $565M-$575M midpoint of prior guidance. Adjusted EBITDA of $221M was 16.3% above the $185M-$195M midpoint of prior guidance, including approximately $10M from a one-time tariff refund.
 
The company raised FY2026 non-GAAP recurring gross-profit guidance to $2.325B-$2.355B, or 23%-25% growth, and increased adjusted EBITDA guidance to $805M-$825M. Toast IQ Grow, hospitality and multi-location restaurant customers, and UK expansion show the platform extending beyond restaurant POS and payments into marketing, operations, hospitality, and retail. ARR, Locations, and GPV all grew 22%-25%, indicating that the quarter's growth was not driven by a single pricing action.
 
Cash and rating. Q2 operating cash flow was $144M and FCF was $130M, below $223M and $208M a year earlier. The company repurchased 19M shares for $486M year to date, meaning buybacks materially exceeded cash generation over the same period and capital allocation requires continued scrutiny. The regular close was $33.81, up 3.11% on the day, and the final after-hours price was $33.21, down 1.77% from the close. The implied after-hours market capitalization was approximately $19.3B, equal to roughly 23.6x the midpoint of full-year adjusted EBITDA guidance, while the mechanically annualized Q2 FCF yield was about 2.7%. Research rating: Neutral-positive. Growth and the guidance raise provide support, but the positive tilt should be reduced if Q3 recurring gross profit falls below $615M or quarterly FCF remains below $130M.

Pinterest: Users, ARPU, and Repurchases Work Together, but GAAP Losses Still Expose the Cost of Stock-Based Compensation

Results. Pinterest Q2 revenue reached $1.180B, up 18% and 3.2% above the $1.133B-$1.153B midpoint of prior guidance. Global MAUs increased 11% to 640M and global ARPU rose 7% to $1.86. US and Canada MAUs grew only 4%, but ARPU increased 14% to $8.30. Rest of World MAUs rose 15% and ARPU increased 21%. AI recommendations, ad relevance, and conversion tools are expanding both user scale and monetization, although international ARPU remains far below North American levels in absolute terms.
 
Adjusted EBITDA was $311M, up 24% and 17% above the $266M midpoint of prior guidance. Operating cash flow was $293M and FCF was $270M. The $47M GAAP net loss differs substantially from non-GAAP net income of $250M. Quarterly stock-based compensation was approximately $320M, equal to 27% of revenue, so non-GAAP profit cannot be treated in full as a shareholder return. The positive side is that the company repurchased more than $2B of shares year to date at an average price of $18.17. Q2 basic weighted-average shares declined from 677M a year earlier to 563M, meaning repurchases more than offset dilution and reduced the share count.
 
Guidance and rating. Q3 revenue guidance is $1.190B-$1.210B, implying 13%-15% growth and only 1.7% sequential growth at the midpoint. Adjusted EBITDA guidance is $335M-$355M, so profit is still expected to grow. The regular close was $25.58, up 5.88% on the day, and the final after-hours price was $23.38, down 8.60% from the close. The implied after-hours market capitalization was approximately $13.1B, equal to roughly 2.8x simply annualized Q2 revenue and an 8.2% mechanically annualized Q2 FCF yield. Growth will slow, but cash generation, a low multiple, and repurchases executed at lower prices create a margin of safety. Research rating: Positive. The rating would move to neutral if Q3 revenue falls below $1.190B, North American ARPU growth drops below 10%, or stock-based compensation remains above 25% of revenue while repurchases stop.

Coupang: Constant-Currency Growth Recovers, but Fines and TTM Cash Flow Keep the Low Sales Multiple Under Pressure

Results. Coupang Q2 revenue was $8.856B, up 4% as reported and 10% in constant currency. Product Commerce revenue was $7.4B, up 8% in constant currency. Active customers increased 3% to 24.7M, while constant-currency revenue per customer grew 5%. Developing Offerings revenue was $1.4B, up 24% in constant currency. Compared with Q1, group adjusted EBITDA improved from $29M to $163M, while the Developing Offerings loss narrowed from $329M to $219M, showing sequential recovery in the operating base.
 
Profit quality remains weak. Group gross margin declined 188bp year over year to 28.2%, while Product Commerce adjusted EBITDA margin fell from 9.0% to 5.1%. Approximately $410M of Korean administrative fines drove the GAAP operating loss to $556M and the net loss to $570M. Even excluding the fines, the adjusted operating loss was still $146M, showing that logistics, WOW membership investment, Taiwan, Farfetch, and other new-business costs remain high.
 
Cash and rating. Q2 operating cash flow was $367M and FCF was $51M, while TTM FCF declined from $784M to $105M. The company also repurchased 23.2M shares for $459M during the quarter, far above quarterly FCF. The regular close was $16.78, up 2.19% on the day, and the final after-hours price was $15.56, down 7.26% from the close. The implied after-hours market capitalization was approximately $27.9B, only about 0.79x simply annualized Q2 revenue. That appears inexpensive, but the TTM FCF yield was just 0.38%, showing that the low multiple reflects margin and regulatory risks. Research rating: Neutral-negative. The low valuation can shift from merely cheap to cash-supported only if Product Commerce EBITDA margin returns above 7%, the quarterly Developing Offerings loss falls below $150M, and TTM FCF recovers above $500M.
 

3. Principal Risks

  1. AI capital spending grows faster than revenue. SpaceX first-half capital expenditures equaled 228% of revenue, while AMD, Arista, Astera, and Lattice all depend on customers continuing to build AI clusters. If cloud providers delay GPU, switch, retimer, FPGA, or compute purchases, orders may remain intact while revenue recognition, gross margin, and cash collection decline first.
  2. High valuations are extremely sensitive to even modest deceleration. AMD, Arista, Astera, and Lattice trade at mechanically annualized earnings multiples of approximately 59x-76x. Revenue that merely meets guidance, a one- to two-percentage-point gross-margin decline, or an end to full-year guidance raises could trigger multiple compression far greater than the underlying earnings change.
  3. Customer and ecosystem concentration. Arista depends on a small number of cloud customers; Astera and AMD depend on large AI platforms and advanced supply chains; and SpaceX has concentrated government, cloud-service, and key-person exposure. A major customer shifting purchases toward NVIDIA, custom chips, white-box networking, or a different compute architecture would amplify quarterly volatility.
  4. Non-GAAP adjustments can obscure the true per-share cost. Pinterest's quarterly stock-based compensation equaled approximately 27% of revenue, while Astera, Lattice, Toast, and AMD also rely on significant non-GAAP measures. If stock-based compensation, acquisition amortization, tax effects, and one-time refunds persist, they are not immaterial one-off items.
  5. M&A and capital allocation. SpaceX plans to acquire Cursor for $60B and Lattice has completed the AMI acquisition, while Toast, Pinterest, and Coupang are executing large repurchases. Integration costs or buybacks that remain above FCF could turn operating growth into cash and balance-sheet pressure.
  6. Regulatory, export, and legal risk. AMD is exposed to AI-chip export controls, Coupang has incurred Korean administrative fines, and SpaceX faces spectrum, aerospace, defense-procurement, and controlled-company governance risks. Regulatory changes can simultaneously affect accessible revenue, inventory, capital expenditures, and the valuation discount.
  7. After-hours pricing and estimate conventions. Regular-close prices and market capitalizations in this report come from Nasdaq. Post-earnings reactions use Yahoo Finance five-minute prices for August 4 including pre-market and after-hours trading, standardized to the final available observations at approximately 19:58-20:00 ET. Implied after-hours market capitalization is a mechanical estimate that scales Nasdaq's close market capitalization by the after-hours-price-to-close-price ratio. Nasdaq's calendar does not specify whether EPS estimates are GAAP or non-GAAP, so this report does not use the convention-conflicted figures for LSCC, PINS, or CPNG to construct conclusions.
     

4. Monitoring Checklist

  • SpaceX: Whether AI capital expenditures as a share of revenue can decline from approximately 618% in Q2 to below 300% and whether group quarterly FCF can turn positive; whether Starlink can continue adding more than 1.5M subscribers per quarter while ARPU remains at least $65; and whether Cursor financing and integration terms erode net cash.
  • AMD: Whether Q3 revenue reaches the $13.0B midpoint and non-GAAP gross margin holds at 56%; whether Data Center revenue continues to grow more than 80%; and whether quarterly FCF exceeds $2.5B. Revenue below $12.7B would weaken support for the current valuation.
  • Arista: Whether Q3 revenue reaches $3.3B and GAAP gross margin remains above 62%; whether the TTM FCF yield rises to 3%; and whether new AI-network customers reduce concentration among the largest buyers.
  • Astera Labs: Whether Scorpio becomes the largest product line as planned in Q3; whether revenue exceeds $540M and gross margin remains at least 71%; whether operating-cash-flow growth catches up with revenue; and whether customer concentration declines.
  • Lattice: Whether Q3 FPGA revenue exceeds $230M and organic growth excluding AMI remains above 50%; whether non-GAAP gross margin reaches 70%; and whether quarterly FCF remains above $80M.
  • Toast: Whether Q3 recurring gross profit reaches the $620M midpoint and adjusted EBITDA reaches the $215M midpoint; whether net new Locations remain above 8,000; and whether another decline in quarterly FCF undermines the positive tilt.
  • Pinterest: Whether Q3 revenue reaches $1.2B and North American ARPU growth remains above 10%; whether FCF stays above $250M; and whether stock-based compensation falls below 25% of revenue while repurchases continue to reduce the share count.
  • Coupang: Whether Product Commerce EBITDA margin recovers above 6%, the Developing Offerings loss falls below $200M, fines lead to additional cash outflows or operating restrictions, and TTM FCF returns above $500M within two quarters.
     

5. Sources