SynthPrice

(SN50)

Synth (SN50) is a decentralized subnet on Bittensor that produces synthetic cryptocurrency price-path data. It aims to overcome the limitations of real-world data by generating probabilistic price forecasts, which helps in creating more accurate market predictions for smarter trading and yield management. Unlike traditional models that offer a single price prediction, Synth captures the full probability distribution of future prices, enabling the training of financial AI agents with data including extreme events not always present in historical records.

The Synth subnet operates with two main roles: miners and validators. Miners generate and submit simulated price paths for assets like Bitcoin and Ethereum over specific timeframes. Validators then compare these predictions against actual market prices using oracles and score the miners' accuracy based on the Continuous Ranked Probability Score (CRPS). This competitive environment incentivizes miners to continuously improve their models, with rewards (TAO tokens) distributed based on performance.

Synth's core product is its high-fidelity probabilistic price dataset, generating millions of data points daily. This synthetic data powers a wide range of financial applications, serving as a crucial data layer for DeFi. Key use cases include enhancing risk management in perpetual and concentrated decentralized exchanges, improving trading strategies for options trading platforms, informing decision-making for individual traders, DeFi protocols, and autonomous AI agents, predicting volatility for treasury managers, and providing a foundational layer for AI-driven financial applications.

The project uses the Continuous Ranked Probability Score (CRPS) across multiple time increments to evaluate miner predictions, considering both the calibration and sharpness of forecasts against actual price movements. Scores are normalized and aggregated on a competitive leaderboard, rewarding the best-performing models and fostering continuous improvement. This rigorous evaluation system ensures that the synthetic data generated maintains high quality and reliability.

While detailed whitepaper information on tokenomics is not fully specified, it's noted that understanding SN50's supply, distribution, and utility is important for assessing its long-term value. Rewards for miners on the Synth subnet are allocated in TAO tokens, distributed from the Bittensor network. The incentive structure encourages competitive performance among miners, contributing to the overall health and decentralization of the network.

Model builders and data scientists can join the Synth ecosystem as miners by referring to their GitHub guides and connecting on platforms like Discord to contribute their models and earn rewards. Synth also provides APIs and tools for developers and agents to retrieve its forecasts and statistics, facilitating integration and broader use of its valuable synthetic data.